Hurley Channels innermost “Pocket Kreskin” to Predict Elections
LoBiondo to Retire in 2018
By HARRY HURLEY
Political Columnist
This is always my most perilous column of the year. I predict the winners of key elections, in a column written and filed before the election, however, it’s not out in print until after the election.
OUR NEXT GOVERNOR:
Although Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno won the overall campaign, debate season and she was right on all key issues that affect New Jerseyans; Our next Governor will be Phil Murphy. Only in Bizarro World does this make any sense. A pure case of cognitive dissonance is in raging effect.
New Jersey is a “Blue State.” Also, New Jersey has alternated back-and-forth between Republicans and Democrats for Governor since 1905. Republicans had dominated in consecutive elections from 1896 to 1911.
Murphy has pledged to raise taxes and new fees massively and has promised to make New Jersey a Sanctuary State. There is no doubt in my mind that under Murphy, New Jersey will endure significant wealth flight, as his regressive policies take effect.
Additionally, residents at all income levels will flee for more tax-friendly states such as Delaware, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida. You know that things will be bad, when it’s more affordable to live in New York versus New Jersey. That day is fast-approaching.
With Murphy as Governor, I also predict that the state of New Jersey will legalize the recreational use of marijuana in 2018.
STATE SENATOR – DISTRICT 2:
Assemblyman Chris Brown was the candidate from “Central Casting.” He ran a master class campaign. He defined his opponent, Colin Bell early and once again defeated millions of special interest dollars that funnel-in to Atlantic County from Camden County.
Brown, deserves this win, however, it must be noted that at least 2-3 million more dollars did not materialize for the Democrats in District 2 because State Senate President Steve Sweeney had such a tough campaign versus Republican Fran Grenier in neighboring District 3.
I also predict that Sweeney won re-election for another term. He will remain the Senate President in 2018 when the Majority Democrats vote to reorganize.
While I’m drawing upon my inner-most Pocket Kreskin self (a nick-name approved by The Amazing Kreskin himself): I hereby predict that Bell’s spouse will be nominated for a New Jersey Superior Court Judgeship. I have confirmed that she has already been vetted by the New Jersey State Police.
Sarah Bell is the Daughter of current Superior Court Judge Nelson Johnson, who is also famous for being the author of his fabulous best-selling book, “Boardwalk Empire: The Birth, High Times and Corruption of Atlantic City.” Johnson’s book was the basis for the award-winning HBO Television series “Boardwalk Empire.”
GENERAL ASSEMBLY – DISTRICT 2:
In a most undeserved result, Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo was re-elected and he carried with him Buena Vista Township Committeeman John Armato into the New Jersey General Assembly.
Mazzeo has consistently worked against District 2, however, he remains popular for reasons that defy political gravity. Armato’s victory is simply a byproduct of him running with Mazzeo; coupled with the fact that Republican challengers Vince Sera and Brenda Taube were complete unknowns in District 2, outside of their home towns of Brigantine and Margate.
Had the Republicans run former Assemblyman Vince Polistina and Atlantic County Freeholder Board Chairman Frank Formica, they would have swept all three legislative seats. Both were willing to run. The ticket simply couldn’t be put together.
STATE SENATE – DISTRICT 1:
This was never a contest. Still, Senator Jeff Van Drew always takes every election seriously. He won the most lopsided victory of his career, I predict breaking 60 percent of the vote. Without Van Drew, District 1 would be controlled by Republicans.
Van Drew truly defies all political labels. He receives support from Democrats, Independents and the highest percentage of Republican support of any Democratic candidate in the state.
United States Congressman Frank LoBiondo told me personally that he will retire in 14 months at the end of his District 2 record-setting 12th term.
GENERAL ASSEMBLY – DISTRICT 1:
Democratic incumbents Bob Andrzejczak and Bruce Land also won re-election by a wide margin as core members of The Van Drew Team.
CRAIG CALLAWAY – THE MAJOR FACTOR & NOT ON THE BALLOT:
Craig Callaway is the former Atlantic City Council President and Mayoral candidate, who spent more than 40 months in Southwoods State Prison for bribery, when he admitted to taking $ 36,000 in August 2006. He was released from prison on Sept. 22, 2010. Callaway was not on the ballot, however, he directly affected more races than almost every at large candidate on the ballot.
Callaway and his election organization delivered more than 2,500 votes. Some went to Democrats. Others went to Republicans. This proved that it wasn’t a monolith, rather, a patch quilt voting effort. Those who earned Callaway’s support won. Those who didn’t, in almost all cases, lost.
Some are crying election fraud. However, with the exception of a handful of technical violations, it appears as though Callaway has master-minded the art of generating votes by way of messenger, absentee and overall effective use the legal vote-by-mail process.
ATLANTIC COUNTY SHERIFF:
Because of the Callaway factor, this is the race that is almost impossible to predict. However, here goes: Somers Point Mayor Jack Glasser won at the polls and former Atlantic City Police Lt. Eric Scheffler won the coveted “Craig Callaway paper ballots.”
It was the “Callaway Factor” that powered Scheffler to victory. This was the most respectful race of Decision 2017. Both men behaved (publicly) as perfect gentleman throughout the campaign.
Glasser remains a popular Mayor of Somers Point, with two years still left on his current term.
CAPE MAY COUNTY SHERIFF:
Republican Bob Nolan won over his Democratic challenger, Rich Harron. This was a bizarre race from the beginning, as Nolan had to beat Harron twice in order to win the position.
First, Nolan decisively defeated Harron for the Republican nomination. The Democrats were having difficulty even finding a Nominee. In unprecedented fashion, the Democrats actually nominated Nolan’s vanquished Republican rival (Harron) to be their Nominee. Hence, it was Nolan vs. Harron, Part 2.
ATLANTIC COUNTY FREEHOLDER – AT LARGE:
Callaway may have decided these two seats. Incumbents John Risley and his running mate Tony DiPietro ran against Democrats Thelma Witherspoon and Caren Fitzpatrick.
Before I predict the winners, I was thoroughly impressed by the issue-oriented, no personal attack-style campaign waged by Witherspoon and Fitzpatrick. They didn’t resort to trashing their opponents or the management of Atlantic County.
To their credit, Risley and DiPietro ran in a like-minded positive campaign.
These two seats could go either way. A split decision. Or, either political party winning both seats. I really don’t know what’s going to happen here. My best guess is to reward Risley for his incumbency and experience and give him one of the spots and the other goes to Witherspoon, powered by the Democratic Column A line and the “Callaway Factor.”
Although Fitzpatrick had Column A, she was on the same line as Risley. Many voters mistakenly believe that they are voting head-to-head, rather than selecting any two of the four candidates. Witherspoon was lined-up on the ballot next to the relatively unknown DiPietro. This is why I gave her the edge, with additional consideration given to Witherspoon for having run in the past.
ATLANTIC COUNTY FREEHOLDER – DISTRICT 3:
Incumbent Republican John Carman won the District 3 seat because it remains a strong Republican District and he was not affected by the “Callaway Factor.” Carman survived a social media meme re-posting that was considered sexist and the wearing of a New Jersey shaped Confederate Flag on his American Legion motorcycle riding jacket.
Carman was first elected in November 2014. This will be his second three-year term. Carman was a long-time Egg Harbor Township Commiteeman before that.
ATLANTIC CITY MAYOR:
Four years ago, Don Guardian accomplished the near impossible. He became Mayor of Atlantic City as a Republican in a city whereby Democratic party affiliation registrants outnumber Republicans by an 11-1 margin. Guardian was basically Albert Einstein, achieving the solving of an impossible mathematical equation.
It just couldn’t happen twice. Councilman at Large Frank Gilliam, Jr. has defeated incumbent Mayor Guardian. The victory was narrow at the polls, however, Gilliam, Jr. was powered by more than 1,400 messenger, absentee, vote-by-mail ballots.
Guardian is fiercely trying to contest the validity of these ballots. If past is prologue, New Jersey Judges count them as legal each and every time, as not to disenfranchise a single voter. Callaway admitted during exclusive on-air interviews with me that they had made a few technical mistakes; but that no criminal tactics were implemented during their massive paper ballot campaign.
ATLANTIC CITY – COUNCIL AT LARGE:
Incumbents George Tibbitt, Mo Delgado and Jeffree Fauntleroy, II (Gilliam Column A slate) won the three open seats. They defeated Guardian running mates Ron Bailey, Paul Tonacci and Stacey Kammerman.
It was a nasty Mayor and Council campaign, filled with allegations of certain candidates having criminal records and other salacious allegations.
By the time you read this, the election will have already taken place. Let me know how I did. It really was the tale of two election seasons:
The General Election of 2017 in Atlantic and Cape May Counties. And, the Craig Callaway “special” election.
Harry Hurley is the president of Harry Hurley Consulting and Communications, LLC. He hosts the daily talk radio program “Hurley in the Morning” 6-10 a.m., weekdays on Townsquare Media, WPG Talk Radio 104.1 FM & 1450 AM, where he also serves as the senior programming consultant. Harry was elected to both the Philadelphia (2014) and New Jersey (2015) Radio Broadcasting Hall of Fame. He has hosted various programs for local television and is the editor and publisher of his news and information website, www.harryhurley.com. Send comments to HarryHurley@aol.com
